Silver has taken the volatility crown from Bitcoin as year-end liquidity thins, with 30-day realized volatility for silver jumping into the mid-50s while Bitcoin’s compressed to the mid-40s. This split suggests macro risk is being expressed more aggressively in metals right now, while crypto flows remain comparatively range-bound.
Silver’s spike is being tied to physical-market tightness and near-term supply frictions. Reports point to a projected 2025 physical deficit of roughly 115–120 million ounces, widening physical premiums in Shanghai and Dubai versus COMEX, and a London forward curve in steep backwardation, all of which traders interpret as scarcity signals.
— Campbell (@abcampbell) December 28, 2025
Why Bitcoin Volatility Is Compressing Into Year-End
Bitcoin’s annualized 30-day realized volatility has slipped below its 365-day average as price action stayed relatively contained. Market summaries put Bitcoin down roughly 7% year-to-date and about 30% below its October peak above $126,000, with softer spot ETF momentum, a cooling narrative around Data Availability Tokens (DAT), and mechanical year-end effects like thinner liquidity and dealer adjustments after major options expiries contributing to muted moves.
Positioning data reinforces that rotation toward metals. Polymarket odds implied about a 70% probability Bitcoin stays above $86,000 into early January 2026, and under a 25% chance of exceeding $92,000, which aligns with expectations for a contained trading band rather than a breakout. For desks, that mix tends to favor different playbooks: elevated silver volatility may offer directional opportunities but carries concentrated physical risks tied to supply, premiums, and regulatory timing, while subdued Bitcoin volatility can make options structures and delta-neutral approaches more compelling until a clearer catalyst emerges.
Near-Term Milestones to Watch
Two dates matter for how this divergence evolves. The January 1, 2026 start of China’s silver export licensing is a defined policy trigger that could keep metals volatility elevated, while early-January options and prediction-market windows will test whether Bitcoin’s range holds and how dealer positioning reshapes short-term price behavior.
