VanEck thinks the latest dip in Bitcoin’s hashrate could be telling a familiar story: miners are getting squeezed, some are switching off machines, and that kind of stress has often shown up near local bottoms. Their core point is that a 4% one-month hashrate drop—the biggest monthly pullback since April 2024—looks like miner capitulation rather than a sign the network is “breaking.”
Why this looks like capitulation, not just noise
Miner capitulation is basically what it sounds like: when mining becomes unprofitable long enough that operators shut down rigs and, in some cases, sell reserves to keep the lights on. VanEck treats the 4% one-month decline as a classic capitulation signal and links it to about 1.3 GW of capacity going offline, including shutdowns in China.
To support the “this can mark a bottom” view, VanEck leans on history. They say that since 2014, a 30-day hashrate contraction was followed by positive 90-day Bitcoin returns about 65% of the time, and that negative 90-day hashrate growth preceded positive 180-day returns averaging 72%. They also reference the Hash Ribbon indicator as a companion tool that has historically aligned with capitulation-and-recovery phases.
Still, they’re not presenting it as a free lunch. VanEck warns that a break below $110,000 could reignite selling pressure from weaker miners, while it describes potential support near $115,000 under current conditions. The note also mentions an analyst view putting a 91% probability on Bitcoin not revisiting below $80,000, which underlines how wide forecasts can be even when the “bottom signal” crowd gets louder.
Away from mining, the backdrop is mixed: some cooling in activity, but real buying from large holders. VanEck says transaction fees and new address growth have softened and speculative positioning has cooled, yet corporate treasuries bought roughly 42,000 BTC over the past month—lifting aggregate corporate holdings to about 1.09 million BTC—and that demand helped offset outflows from Bitcoin ETPs.
On targets, they keep the bullish framing intact. VanEck reiterates a $180,000 projection for end-2025 and cites a long-term $2,000,000 target by 2050, arguing this period looks more like a reset than a prolonged deterioration. Practically, if you’re running risk, the “tell” to watch is simple: whether hashrate stabilizes and whether institutional/treasury buying stays consistent while miners remain under pressure.
