Polymarket is spotlighting a retention gap that many crypto teams prefer not to benchmark. While attracting new users is not always the bottleneck, keeping them active after month one is harder. Retention data compiled by analytics company Dune and market maker Keyrock tracked monthly cohorts of new active users and measured how many returned to trade in later months. Across 275 crypto projects spanning networks, DeFi platforms, wallets and trading apps, Polymarket’s average retention outperformed over 85% of protocols. The figures reinforce that sustained usage remains rare, and weak retention can translate into shallow liquidity and fragile growth narratives. A Token Terminal chart visualized the gap across crypto entities in detail.
Retention reframes prediction markets’ appeal
Prediction markets offer a structure that differs from many crypto apps because engagement is tied to real world events. Elections, sports competitions and macroeconomic releases create recurring reasons for users to re-engage, even when token prices are quiet. The report says this event-driven cycle can drive more high-frequency participation than short-term speculation and reduce reliance on incentives to sustain trading activity. Instead of chasing bursts of volatility, users return as headlines evolve and outcomes approach resolution. That cadence can make participation feel habitual, with frequent check-ins that resemble a workflow rather than a one-off trade. In a sector where attention is scarce, the predictability of events becomes a product advantage material.
This dynamic helps explain why some of the largest crypto platforms have begun to experiment more actively with prediction market integrations. The report frames retention as a core operating metric: when liquidity depends on frequent participation, weak retention can signal shallow growth and unreliable depth. Crypto entities that struggle to keep users engaged outside high-volatility periods may be searching for features that encourage repeat behavior rather than one-time transactions. Against that backdrop, prediction markets function as an engagement layer that is independent of volatility. They give users a reason to come back because the underlying world keeps producing scheduled moments that need pricing, not because incentives are temporarily boosted for traders.
Concrete moves are already visible. The report points to Coinbase and Gemini, wallet service Phantom, and clearing provider Bitnomial Clearinghouse as crypto entities that signaled entry into prediction markets in December. On Friday, Bloomberg reported that Coinbase will launch tokenized equities and prediction markets, after tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong shared alleged leaks of a prediction markets website. On Saturday, Bitnomial received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, enabling it to launch prediction markets and offer clearing services for other platforms. On Tuesday, Gemini launched an in-house prediction market across all 50 states, aiming to build a one-stop app that pairs trading with event contracts. The trend bears watching.
