Bitwise Asset Management expects Bitcoin returns to stay robust but become more moderate through 2035, emphasizing long-run compounding over repeated parabolic spikes. Its base case targets $1.3 million by 2035, implying an average compound annual return near 28.3% and a meaningfully lower volatility profile than Bitcoin has historically shown, with institutional inflows and spot Bitcoin ETFs framed as the core demand engine.
Bitwise characterizes the next phase as a “10-year grind upward,” where mainstream ETF adoption turns institutional buying into a more programmatic driver of appreciation. One example cited is an ETF managing about $2.5 billion and holding roughly 40,000 BTC, illustrating how institution-scale accumulation can support steadier price behavior rather than purely speculative surges.
A steadier return model with defined ranges and cycle implications
In its modeling, Bitwise cuts expected annual volatility to roughly 32.9% over the next ten years, a notable step-down from prior extremes. The firm pairs that moderation with a structured scenario set, including bull and bear cases around the central forecast, and contrasts the expected path with prior episodic upside such as a reported 125% rise in 2024. The four-year halving cycle is treated as less dominant in this framework. Bitwise argues that halving-driven cycles are giving way to more continuous, institutionally shaped demand and expects fresh highs, including scenarios that put Bitcoin above $200,000 by late 2025.
A concise phrase captures the posture. Bitwise describes the outlook as a “10-year grind upward,” reflecting sustained appreciation with fewer parabolic spikes.
Why regulation and institutional plumbing matter to the forecast
Bitwise links the lower-volatility, compounding profile to clearer regulatory environments—especially in the United States and Europe—and to the operating habits of institutional allocators. As more capital is routed through regulated ETFs and similar structures, custody and reporting expectations shift toward institutional compliance standards, increasing the importance of segregated custody, external audits, enhanced identification, reserve transparency, and mandatory reporting aligned with institutional counterparties.
That change has direct operating-model consequences across the market stack. More predictable ETF inflows create incentives for custodians and exchanges to upgrade infrastructure for large, steady transfers and to meet higher custody standards, while issuers face pressure to demonstrate reserve integrity and auditability to secure institutional allocations. In Bitwise’s framing, this is a structural transition. The market’s center of gravity moves from speculative trading toward portfolio-level allocation and compliance-driven behavior, with Bitcoin flows increasingly shaped by institutional processes and oversight.
Bitwise ultimately positions Bitcoin as a maturing asset class with a different risk-return complexion than earlier cycles. The firm’s central claim is that deeper institutional channels and improved regulatory clarity can support strong, consistent returns alongside declining volatility over time.
