Altcoins held a key technical floor through early January, and that resilience has started to shift positioning from defensive selling to early-stage accumulation. The core message is that buyers have been willing to step in at support, and the market has so far absorbed supply without a breakdown.
Michaël van de Poppe highlighted Total3, the total altcoin market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, as holding near $784 billion in a Jan. 4 post, and he argued that this stability sets the stage for a potential move higher toward the prior peak around $1.2 trillion. His thesis is straightforward: defend the base, then build a path back to the highs.
The #Altcoin market capitalization has held the crucial level for support and is ready for a big leg upwards to the all-time high. pic.twitter.com/qu4phrJeTk
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 4, 2026
The technical setup and why it matters
Van de Poppe’s view focuses on Total3 interacting with its 365-day moving average, which he noted the index was approaching in early January. With the October 2025 correction in the rear-view mirror, he framed that moving-average approach as constructive, pointing to absorbed selling and increased buying from more sophisticated participants. In practical terms, the claim is that risk/reward improves when support holds and supply gets consistently met with demand.
Bitcoin’s consolidation around $91,000–$92,000 was presented as a supportive backdrop, since a stable range in the largest asset can allow capital to rotate into altcoins rather than rushing back into safety. The premise is rotation: when Bitcoin holds steady instead of breaking down, marginal risk appetite often reappears further out on the curve. At the same time, the expectation is that the next phase will be more selective than prior cycles rather than a uniform “everything pumps” move.
What could drive rotation—and what can break it
Liquidity dynamics are different this cycle, with ETF flows for Bitcoin and Ethereum changing how capital moves through the market. That raises the hurdle for altcoins: they have to show fundamentals to earn allocation rather than relying purely on beta. This is why the setup, even if bullish, still implies a market where winners and losers can diverge sharply.
Macro catalysts were also cited as potential accelerants, including rate cuts and a softer dollar, both of which can improve sentiment toward risk assets. If macro tailwinds align with stable crypto majors, the conditions for rotation into altcoins become materially stronger.
But the downside case is equally clear: thinner exchange volumes and episodic volatility can punish small-cap tokens quickly, especially if liquidity disappears at the wrong moment. In a market with uneven depth, drawdowns can be abrupt and mechanically driven, even when the broader thesis remains intact.
The selectivity point is central: the altcoin universe has expanded dramatically, and that breadth forces capital to concentrate rather than lift everything equally. Broad, undifferentiated exposure increases concentration and execution risk because liquidity and fundamentals are not evenly distributed.
Van de Poppe summarized his stance on Jan. 4 by stating that the altcoin market cap held a crucial support level and is positioned for a larger move toward the all-time high. The statement captures the opportunity while still hinging the thesis on continued support defense and follow-through.
Operationally, the takeaway is risk management over headlines: disciplined position sizing, attention to liquidity, and stops calibrated to thinner markets matter more than simply being “in altcoins.” The market may be offering an accumulation window, but it is not offering forgiveness for poor liquidity planning.
